Northvolt filed for bankruptcy last Wednesday, but production at the Skellefteå factory continues under the bankruptcy trustee's management.
Economist Claes Hemberg, known for his independent analyses, was quick to comment on Northvolt's bankruptcy filing. In a post titled 'Batterifabriken flytt int' on his website, he argued that the bankruptcy does not spell the end for the battery factory in Skellefteå.
Five days later, when contacted by Norran, Hemberg maintained his position, stating that it's likely a new owner will take over the factory and continue operations. He noted that Northvolt chose Skellefteå because it was the best location they could find.
Hemberg also suggested that Volkswagen, a major shareholder in Northvolt, is a likely candidate to acquire the Skellefteå plant. He pointed out that Volkswagen plans to build six factories in Europe and that the Skellefteå facility, being partially completed and benefiting from low electricity costs, presents an attractive opportunity.
Hemberg remains optimistic, emphasizing the plant's potential to become one of Europe's leading battery production sites.
He points to the readily available, cheap energy in Skellefteå, as well as the skilled workforce that has already been attracted to the area, and the established logistics infrastructure.
Hemberg also argues that it would be costly and unnecessary to relocate the operation.
– Moving a factory of this scale costs a significant amount of money, and finding a superior location in Europe is not easy.
Isn't there a risk that no one will want to take over the factory, either to continue running it or to relocate it?
– Yes, that risk always exists, but Europe needs 20-25 battery factories. So why build a new one when there's already a functional one in Skellefteå?
Hemberg further argues that Volkswagen has publicly stated its intention to build six of its own factories in Europe, making the German industrial giant the most likely candidate to take over.
– Yes, I believe so. With their established track record in automobile production, they possess the expertise required to transform the factory into a fully operational industrial site, rather than just a laboratory. They also have insider knowledge of the current factory's weaknesses.
Why haven't they, as major stakeholders, intervened to rescue the company earlier?
– I believe that's purely a business decision. When chapter 11 was initiated, there was no incentive to make a bid. They might have even been aware that no other party would dare to make an offer, making it advantageous to wait. The price decreases daily. Now, perhaps 10 billion kronor will suffice.
Volkswagen was the largest owner of Northvolt before the bankruptcy. Now, Claes Hemberg believes that the automotive giant will buy the bankrupt company's assets.
The fact that European car manufacturers have new requirements this year to increase the proportion of electrified vehicles sold also speaks in favor of a car manufacturer taking over, according to Hemberg.
– There are many forces that speak in favour of Skellefteå and the battery factory. Of course, with a different name, but that probably matters less, says Hemberg, who believes that the fact that the bankruptcy trustee has ensured that the factory's shifts continue to work is a sign that the factory has great value in its current form.
– Dismantling it and selling the machines is a much worse choice, he says.
The future of the battery factory in Skellefteå remains uncertain, but economist Claes Hemberg believes it will remain operational. He states, "The factory in Skellefteå has good prospects of becoming one of Europe's leading facilities."
Hemberg attributes Northvolt's bankruptcy to a combination of internal mismanagement and challenging external factors.
– It's not simply bad luck, nor solely due to mismanagement. It's a confluence of many issues, Hemberg states, pointing to external pressures such as the energy crisis, the pandemic, inflation, and the war in Europe.
– These unique circumstances have made it exceptionally difficult for the company to secure new funding.
He doesn't consider the company's initial lack of profitability to be unusual.
– Just because a company experiences losses during its early stages doesn't mean it's fundamentally flawed. Many businesses have faced prolonged periods of adversity before achieving success. The Skellefteå factory has strong potential to become one of Europe's leading battery production facilities, Hemberg concludes.