Region Västerbotten, a level of government between the national level and the local municipalities, commissioned an analysis of the situation, resulting in a report produced by a consultant during November and December. The report examines how different scenarios regarding Northvolt's future could impact Skellefteå and Västerbotten.
These scenarios include a successful restructuring, Northvolt declaring bankruptcy with a new owner continuing operations in Skellefteå, and a complete shutdown of the facility. The analysis covers the period from 2024 to 2030, comparing these scenarios to previous projections for Northvolt's growth.
In this adjusted reference scenario, the projected 2030 workforce has been revised downward from 4,000 to 2,500 employees, a figure the consultant deems realistic for achieving profitability.
The report concludes that a successful restructuring and a bankruptcy followed by new ownership would have similar effects. Both scenarios predict a temporary dip in 2025 and 2026, followed by a relatively swift recovery by 2030. Employment would decrease by a few hundred jobs, while population and tax revenues would see slight increases.
Unsurprisingly, a complete shutdown would have more significant and lasting negative consequences, impacting employment, population growth, the regional economy, and tax revenues.
In the event of a bankruptcy, employment is expected to decrease by over 3,700 people, and the population is expected to decrease by 4,250.
Additionally, Skellefteå municipality is expected to receive 267 million kronor less in tax revenue in 2030 compared to 2024. Overall, over the years leading up to 2030, this amounts to a billion kronor in lost tax revenue. In Västerbotten generally, employment, population, and tax revenues increase less in this scenario. For example, the population is expected to increase by over 11,000 in Västerbotten in scenario one, but by almost 2,000 people in the shutdown scenario.
Skellefteå mayor, Lorents Burman (S) has received a briefing on the report and believes it is good that the municipality’s assessment of the situation is now documented.
– It’s difficult to assess the different effects, and it should be said that it’s an estimate, he says.
He points out that a bankruptcy would mean much more than just a blow to Skellefteå.
– It would be Sweden’s largest bankruptcy, and it’s a national issue. That’s why we’ve worked to retain as much expertise as possible in Skellefteå. What’s important here is that there are 3,000 people here who can build batteries. The combined expertise doesn’t exist anywhere else in Europe, and it would be a disaster if it is lost – if those working here scatter and return to their home countries.
– The third scenario must absolutely not happen. We are aiming for scenario one, and while we wait for things to improve, we must retain the workforce here, he adds.
He feels he hasn't received an adequate response from the government on this, particularly regarding extending residence permits so former Northvolt employees have time to find new jobs.
– Starting the construction of the Norrbotniabanan also requires a lot of labour, as does the E4 bypass. In these cases, it is the state that bears the responsibility. We have not yet received a go-ahead for Norrbotniabanan, he says.
He adds that they are still in dialogue with the government. Just last week, he met with the state secretary and explained that this issue is not just a matter for Skellefteå, but a national and European issue.
One conclusion in the report is also that the follow-up effects on companies affected by the bankruptcy and restructuring are considered to be relatively limited.
However, the report warns of a risk of damaged trust in Northvolt or a new owner, as well as in companies involved in the green transition or other businesses in Skellefteå. Even Skellefteå as a municipality and Västerbotten as a region could suffer a loss of trust, the report suggests. Fewer people may want to move to the area or remain there because it is perceived as higher risk.
– Very many describe the green transition as a bunch of bubbles. Those bubbles only exist in their heads. The reality is that the entire world is moving towards this change. Asia and China are ten years ahead. What might happen if Northvolt goes bankrupt is that those who claim climate change doesn't exist will have more justification not to break fossil dependency, says Burman.
He adds:
– If Sweden doesn’t keep up with the green transition, the technological industry development here will be very outdated in just a few years. It will be devastating for the economy. If Northvolt fails, it may become harder in the future to attract investors to Europe.