Glenn Sandström researches historical and contemporary demographics.
Insurance company, Dina Försäkringar has released data revealing a steady decline in Sweden's birth rate. Last year marked the lowest number of newborns since 2003, with the average woman now having 1.45 children—the fewest since records began in 2000.
While the national trend is downward, regional disparities are evident. Kronoberg and Mullsjö in Jönköping County have bucked the trend with nearly a 79% increase in births. Malå also stands out with a rate of 2.32 children per woman. Conversely, Skellefteå mirrors the national average at 1.45, while Umeå has one of the lowest rates at 1.21.
Regional variations are stark: Vindeln has experienced a 64% increase in births since 2000, while Vilhelmina and Storuman have seen declines of 35.5% and 30%, respectively.
Glenn Sandström, a docent in history at Umeå University, is studying this trend.
– We're witnessing an unprecedented development in Western Europe and the Nordic countries. Birth rates have been declining since 2010, a stark contrast to the past when high female employment, economic growth, and fertility rates coexisted.
Sandström explains that women averaged around two children from the 1960s to 2010, with fluctuations linked to economic cycles. For instance, the oil crisis of the 1970s and the real estate crisis of the 1990s both contributed to declines. Economic downturns often led women to postpone childbearing.
However, a significant shift occurred around 2010. Individuals born in 1985 or later are increasingly opting for childlessness, a trend that cannot be solely attributed to economic factors.
– Despite a favorable economic climate leading up to the pandemic and easy entry into the job market, birth rates plummeted between 2010 and 2019, Sandström says.
Attitudes towards starting a family have changed. The economy is no longer the most important factor.
This decline isn't attributed to fewer partnerships, relationship instability, or socioeconomic factors. Instead, research suggests that shifting attitudes are driving the decision to remain childless.
– The only clear correlation we've found is a pessimistic outlook on the future, Sandström says.
Contributing factors include heightened geopolitical tensions, growing political polarization, democratic erosion, and a perceived inability to address climate change. Furthermore, there's a growing distrust in institutions.
– People are questioning the future viability of healthcare and welfare services. There's a sense of uncertainty about whether they can provide adequate care for a child.
This uncertainty has led to what some call "the shadow of the future," where people doubt the responsibility of bringing a child into such a world.
Concerns about inadequate climate action are also influencing people's decisions about whether or not to have children.
A political divide is evident on the GAL-TAN spectrum. Those leaning towards traditional, authoritarian, and nationalist (TAN) values tend to be less pessimistic about the future when considering factors influencing birth rates across European countries. Conversely, individuals with more liberal and green (GAL) inclinations are more likely to choose childlessness.
– Women who identify more with GAL values are more affected by the current instability and they often make the fertility decisions.
Researchers have also noted the housing market's impact, particularly for those born after the millennium.
– The housing market could explain regional differences. Cheaper areas, like Malå, may see higher birth rates compared to more expensive cities, such as Umeå and Skellefteå.
People are questioning the future viability of healthcare and welfare services. There is a sense of uncertainty about whether they can provide adequate care for a child.
Regional differences in birth rates might also be attributed to variations in the age distribution of women. Women who remain in smaller towns and forego further education often establish careers earlier and start families sooner than those who pursue higher education or relocate. The latter group may contribute to lower birth rates in their destination areas.
Sandström cautions against overanalyzing regional and municipal data due to diverse factors and chance.
– The most striking finding is the overall decline of half a child per woman nationwide since 2010, he says
Sandström will dedicate the next five years to researching this ongoing decline in birth rates.