Norrland takes the helm of Sweden's prosperity

Northern Norrland is currently driving Sweden's economy, while major cities are losing momentum. "The differences are unusually significant and are expected to widen in the coming years," says Susanne Spector, chief analyst at Nordea.

Susanne Spector, chief analyst at Nordea. Archive image.

Susanne Spector, chief analyst at Nordea. Archive image.

Foto: Pontus Lundahl/TT

Ekonomi2023-09-26 07:21

The economic situation varies across different regions of Sweden, as indicated by Nordea's annual breakdown of how the economy is performing in eight different regions. It ranges from a grim outlook for housing construction to brighter prospects in the northern part of Norrland.

Susanne Spector comments:

– The situation looks best in the north; they have experienced a shorter downturn, but now it's turning around again.

The primary driving force behind this improvement is the significant green industrial investments, but these regions have also traditionally relied on raw materials.

– This could be a positive signal in general; they often lead the way in economic cycles, says Spector, hinting at a broader economic recovery in the future.

Northern Norrland is the only region staying above the zero mark this year in terms of Gross Regional Product (GRP), which is equivalent to regional GDP. Nordea predicts a similar scenario for next year, with West and South Sweden at the bottom.

Regarding the job market, the situation remains relatively consistent. Employment is expected to decline across the country next year, except in the central and northern parts of Norrland.

– It shrinks the most in metropolitan regions, says Spector, attributing this to the increasing interest costs, which put pressure on consumption. Service industries play a relatively significant role in metropolitan areas.

Norrland faces different challenges, particularly a shortage of labor. Central Norrland was the only region with declining population growth in 2022.

– It hampers the potential, says Spector. The challenge is to halt emigration and encourage immigration, according to her.

On the other end of the country, Skåne has once again reclaimed the less flattering top position with the highest unemployment rate.