After several months of rising or unchanged food prices, they decreased slightly in August. Compared to July, food prices are down 0.1 percent, according to Matpriskollen's compilation of regular prices for around 43,000 products at major retail chains.
Above all, dairy products have decreased in price, says Ulf Mazur, CEO and founder of Matpriskollen.
– It offsets what would otherwise have been a much larger price increase. And within dairy, there will probably continue to be price pressure ahead.
Not Covered
In addition, there are often long lead times in the grocery trade, which means that many producers still feel the effects of the lag caused by the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, says Mazur.
– We will continue to see these effects. There are still upward pricing needs out there.
Several producers currently do not have coverage for their costs, says Mazur, as they have not been able to fully compensate for increased cost levels.
– They need to raise prices a little more. This speaks for continued price increases in the autumn and early winter.
Weak Krona a Threat
The biggest threat to a lower rate of price increases is the weak krona, says Mazur.
– Half of everything we eat is imported. When the krona becomes weaker, it puts a lot of pressure on prices. The same product becomes much more expensive, regardless of what the producer does to keep prices down. If you pay in euros, it doesn't matter. Those costs have to be passed on to the consumer.
Among imported goods, it is primarily olive oil that has become more expensive, partly due to poor harvests in Spain.
Changed Consumer Behavior
But prices in stores are as squeezed as they can be, Ulf Mazur believes.
– No one is raising their prices today because they want to make more money. Retailers are very afraid of losing sales.
One reason is that consumers have changed their behavior and are no longer loyal to one store.
– It's wise to go to multiple stores and hunt for special offers. That will continue, and put great pressure on traditional stores.
But consumers need to be prepared for higher food prices to stay, says Mazur.
– I think we should accept the situation that food take up a larger part of disposable income in the future.